Der internationale Flugverkehr wird sich laut IATA erst 2024 vollständig von Covid-19 erholt haben …
Die IATA (International Air Transport Association) ist bei den derzeitigen Prognosen ein wenig skeptischer geworden. Der internationale Flugverkehr soll sich erst 2024 vollständig erholt haben. Die Leute haben Angst und wenig Vertrauen, der Business Reisemarkt ist eingebrochen und die wirtschaftsstarken Regionen werden erneut immer wieder mit Covid-19 konfrontiert.
Die Prognosen:
“Global passenger traffic (revenue passenger kilometers or RPKs) will not return to pre-COVID-19 levels until 2024, a year later than previously projected.
The recovery in short haul travel is still expected to happen faster than for long haul travel. As a result, passenger numbers will recover faster than traffic measured in RPKs. Recovery to pre-COVID-19 levels, however, will also slide by a year from 2022 to 2023. For 2020, global passenger numbers (enplanements) are expected to decline by 55% compared to 2019, worsened from the April forecast of 46%.”
Die Zahlen:
“International Passenger Markets
June international traffic shrank by 96.8% compared to June 2019, only slightly improved over a 98.3% decline in May, year-over-year. Capacity fell 93.2% and load factor contracted 44.7 percentage points to 38.9%.
Asia-Pacific airlines’ June traffic plummeted 97.1% compared to the year-ago period, little improved from the 98.1% decline in May. Capacity fell 93.4% and load factor shrank 45.8 percentage points to 35.6%.
European carriers saw demand topple 96.7% in June versus a year ago, compared to a 98.7% decline in May. Capacity dropped 94.4% and load factor lessened 35.7 percentage points to 52.0%.
Middle Eastern airlines traffic collapsed 96.1% for June against June 2019, compared with a 97.7% demand drop in May. Capacity contracted 91.1%, and load factor crumbled to 33.3%, down 43.1% compared to a year ago.
North American carriers had a 97.2% traffic decline in June, barely improved from a 98.3% decline in May. Capacity fell 92.8%, and load factor dropped 53.8 percentage points to 34.1%.
Latin American airlines suffered a 96.6% demand drop in June compared to the same month last year, from a 98.1% drop in May. Capacity fell 95.7% and load factor sagged 17.7 percentage points to 66.2%, which was the highest among the regions.
African airlines’ traffic sank 98.1% in June, little changed from a 98.6% demand drop in May. Capacity contracted 84.5%, and load factor dived 62.1 percentage points to just 8.9% of seats filled, lowest among regions.”
Die Begründung:
“The more pessimistic recovery outlook is based on a number of recent trends:
Slow virus containment in the US and developing economies: Although developed economies outside of the US have been largely successful in containing the spread of the virus, renewed outbreaks have occurred in these economies, and in China. Furthermore there is little sign of virus containment in many important emerging economies, which in combination with the US, represent around 40% of global air travel markets. Their continued closure, particularly to international travel, is a significant drag on recovery.
Reduced corporate travel: Corporate travel budgets are expected to be very constrained as companies continue to be under financial pressure even as the economy improves. In addition, while historically GDP growth and air travel have been highly correlated, surveys suggest this link has weakened, particularly with regard to business travel, as video conferencing appears to have made significant inroads as a substitute for in-person meetings.
Weak consumer confidence: While pent-up demand exists for VFR (visiting friends and relatives) and leisure travel, consumer confidence is weak in the face of concerns over job security and rising unemployment, as well as risks of catching COVID-19. Some 55% of respondents to IATA’s June passenger survey don’t plan to travel in 2020.”
Zur Pressemitteilung: Recovery Delayed as International Travel Remains Locked Down
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