IATA hat die Prognosen für den Sommer 2021 vorgestellt …
Die International Air Transport Association (IATA) gibt immer Prognosen über den weiteren Verlauf der Covid-19 Krise ab. Für den Sommer 2021 gibt es zwei Varianten. Einmal sieht man eine Erholung, wenn die Staaten aufgrund der erfolgten Durchimpfung der Risikogruppen die Beschränkungen wieder aufheben. Ein negatives Szenario sieht eine Aufrechterhaltung der Reisebeschränkungen auch über den Sommer.
Die Pressemitteilung:
„Estimates for cash burn in 2021 have ballooned to the $75 billion to $95 billion range from a previously anticipated $48 billion. The following factors play into this estimate:
Weak Start for 2021: It is already clear that the first half of 2021 will be worse than earlier anticipated. This is because governments have tightened travel restrictions in response to new COVID-19 variants. Forward bookings for summer (July-August) are currently 78% below levels in February 2019 (comparisons to 2020 are distorted owing to COVID-19 impacts).
Optimistic Scenario: From this lower starting point for the year, an optimistic scenario would see travel restrictions gradually lifted once the vulnerable populations in developed economies have been vaccinated, but only in time to facilitate tepid demand over the peak summer travel season in the northern hemisphere. In this case 2021 demand would be 38% of 2019 levels. Airlines would burn through $75 billion of cash over the year. But cash burn of $7 billion in the fourth quarter would be significantly improved from an anticipated $33 billion cash burn in the first quarter.
Pessimistic Scenario: This scenario would see airlines burn through $95 billion over the year. There would be an improving trend from a $33 billion cash burn in the first quarter reducing to $16 billion in the fourth quarter. The driver of this scenario would be governments retaining significant travel restrictions through the peak northern summer travel season. In this case, 2021 demand would only be 33% of 2019 levels.“
Zur Pressemitteilung: COVID-19 Cash Burn Continues – Urgent Preparations for Restart
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